During our State of the Industry panel discussion at The Car Wash Show last month, a panelist shared his view that the car wash industry seems largely immune to the upheaval that artificial intelligence (AI) is prognosticated to bring to other industries. Many have concluded that car washing is recession-resilient and "Amazon-proof," so shouldn't we feel similarly confident about this threat?
My reply was that he might want to consider what humanoid robots can already do in the home, and what may happen to car washing as the affordability and accessibility of these AI-empowered machines increases.
While the car wash business has many characteristics that make it resilient to AI-induced disruption today, I’m not as confident that our current immunity will persist in the long term. While AI is digital and washing is physical, the progression of robotics and the expected emergence of recursive (self-improving) AI seem certain to impact nearly every aspect of society.
I’m neither a futurist nor a technologist, but I do think it’s useful for each of us to occasionally gaze at the emerging horizon and consider what might be ahead.
First, for context, if you haven’t already educated yourself on what’s happening with robotics – particularly humanoid robotics – I’d encourage you to take a look. Companies like Figure, which bills itself as “the future of home help,” have successfully engineered robots to handle loading and unloading the dishwasher, doing laundry and making the bed. A Figure robot was also recently tested during a YouTube live stream on a package sorting line, with an initial eight-hour test extended to more than 24 hours prior to being concluded. The result: 28,000 packages sorted with zero errors.
Atlas, Boston Dynamics' humanoid, is handling part picking and arrangement on assembly lines. And Optimus, promised by Tesla to be available “soon”, is handling similar functions.
To be clear, these robots can’t do everything yet – they’re far from perfect. They’re also expensive. Tesla projects unit costs between $20,000 and $30,000 once production is at scale, while other industry analysts estimate pricing to remain in the $50,000 to $100,000 range. But two things appear to be likely true: (1) if the technology can be proven effective, prices will decline as production increases and (2) the ability of robots to work essentially 24 hours per day will substantially reduce the cost of “labor.”
If these presumptions become fact, what does it mean for car washing's future? Well, as a thought experiment, let’s think about how robotics could impact both demand and supply.
From a demand perspective, I'm unaware of anyone projecting an end to mobility. Whether autonomous vehicles or car sharing become more prevalent, those vehicles will still need to be cleaned — perhaps even more often (and in new ways, given the sensitive sensors involved). The real question: What choices will consumers or fleet owners select to meet that need?
The express model has been the perfect solve for drivers wanting a high-quality, affordable, and convenient wash. But what could be more convenient than a humanoid robot washing your vehicle while you sleep? What could beat a price of near zero? And what if the quality isn't perfect, but it's good enough?
Robotics may also impact supply, specifically as competitive alternatives to today’s car washes. In the United Kingdom, unregistered hand car washes have remained a stubborn competitor to automated car washes. These sites often open overnight, without any business license or environmental safeguards, to offer a good enough option at a very low price. They maintain a substantial market share, which has depressed investment in modern car washing facilities.
Now what if hand car washes were offered by robots?
Compare the $6MM-$8MM cost of opening an express car wash to purchasing a handful of robots and renting a warehouse bay or commercial pad site. Even without the throughput of a tunnel, with robots running autonomously 24/7, the ROI could be attractive to new entrepreneurs or existing businesses searching for ancillary profit centers. What if a “charity car wash” was set up using leased robots?
It seems likely that no single factor will, by itself, reshape the car wash industry, but the two forces don't carry equal weight. For robots to dent consumer demand, millions of households would need to welcome a humanoid in.
The supply side risk requires less. The ROI on a business with five robots and a warehouse bay could be compelling enough to scale. The UK's experience with hand washes could be instructive: the mere presence of a cheaper, good-enough alternative can depress investment and innovation across an industry. So while consumer adoption is the more visible question, the supply side may be the one that moves first.
The key questions seem to be: Does robotic car washing become a natural evolution of the car wash industry? Or will it emerge as an independent, outside threat?
Where does hope exist?
If convenience were to evaporate as a differentiator, the car wash industry would need to compete on what’s left, or on what could be newly created. As we saw during COVID, washing a car can be an enjoyable and entertaining experience. However, will that be enough to protect demand from at-home competition? Could car washes evolve into being a more meaningful part of vehicle care, perhaps by offering diagnostic assessments with specialized equipment that isn’t available at home? Could car washes become a “third place," as Starbucks has curated, where drivers enjoy a time of quiet, respite or community while waiting for their car to be cleaned?
The truth, of course, is that no one knows what the future holds. The exponential growth potential of technology isn’t immune from real-world friction - data processing capacity, electrical supply, government regulation, or societal pushback. But maybe not knowing the answers shouldn’t stop us from asking the questions. After all… how else will you know how to make your next move?